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KMID : 1094020170340020146
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Journal of Veterinary Clinics
2017 Volume.34 No. 2 p.146 ~ p.151
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A GIS-Based Mapping to Identify Locations at Risk for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus Outbreak in Korea
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Lee Gyoung-ju
Pak Son-Il
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Abstract
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Six major outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) occurred from 2003 to 2016 in Korea. Epidemiological investigations of each outbreak revealed that migratory birds were the primary source of the HPAI virus. During the last five years, the geographic transmission pattern of domestic HPAI seems to have extended from local to nationwide; therefore, it is necessary to identify specific locations in which poultry farms are at elevated risk for HPAI outbreak to enable targeted surveillance and other mitigation strategies. Here, a geographical information system (GIS)-based analysis was used to identify geographic areas at high risk for future HPAI incidents in Korea based on historical outbreak data collected between December 2003 and April 2016. To accomplish this, seven criteria were used to identify areas at high-risk for HPAI occurrence. The first three criteria were based on defined spatial criteria buffering of 200 bird migration sites to some defined extents and the historical incidence of HPAI outbreaks at the buffering sites. The remaining criteria were based on combined attribute information such as number of birds or farms at district levels. Based on the criteria established for this study, the most-likely areas at higher risk for HPAI outbreak were located in Chungcheong, Jeolla, Gyeonggi, and Gyeongnam provinces, which are densely populated poultry regions considered major poultry-production areas that are located along bird migration sites. The proportion of areas at risk for HPAI occurrence ranged from 4.5% to 64.9%. For the worst criteria, all nine provinces, including Jeju Island, were found to be at risk of HPAI. The results of this study indicate that the number of poultry farms at risk for HPAI outbreaks is largely underestimated by current regulatory risk assessment procedures conducted for biosecurity authorization. The HPAI risk map generated in this study will enable easy use of information by policy makers to identify surveillance zones and employ targeted surveillance to reduce the impact of HPAI transmission.
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KEYWORD
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HPAI , risk map , GIS , surveillance
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